OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
UN FAO - July 11, 2012
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021 is prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. The
main purpose of the report is the attempt to build consensus on global prospects for the agriculture, fisheries and food sectors, and on emerging issues which affect them. Accordingly, the projections and assessments provided in the report are the result of close co-operation with national experts in OECD countries as well as some key non-OECD countries and agro-industry organisations, reflecting the combined knowledge and expertise of this wide group of collaborators. A jointly developed modelling system, based on the OECD's Aglink and FAO’s Cosimo models facilitates consistency and analysis of the projections. The fully documented outlook database, including historical data and projections, is available through the OECD-FAO joint internet site www.agri-outlook.org.
This annual report provides market projections for biofuels, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, dairy products and fish and seafood over the 2012-21 period. The market assessments are contingent on a set of underlying assumptions regarding macroeconomic factors and the continuation of domestic agricultural and trade policies. They also assume normal weather conditions and long-term productivity trends. As such, the Outlook presents a plausible view on the evolution of global agricultural markets over the next decade and provides a baseline for further analysis of alternative economic or policy assumptions.
The setting for this Outlook is one of lowering of agricultural commodity prices from near record levels in response to a large rebound in supplies of major crops and a weaker macroeconomic environment. Food price inflation has eased but remains a concern in developing countries. Looking ahead, the short run global economic outlook has weakened with inflation over the medium term in the major emerging economies expected to be above the OECD area average. Other key assumptions are for a slower population growth and much higher energy prices in the coming decade.
A critical question addressed in this report is whether the supply response to projected higher commodity prices will be sufficient to meet the future demand for food, feed, fuel and fibre. Rising input costs, increasing resource constraints, growing environmental pressures and the uncertainties of climate change will all have an impact on agricultural output. The key issue facing global agriculture is how to increase productivity in a more sustainable way.
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